The standings have nearly crystalized, but they do not paint a complete picture of the 7DAYS EuroCup landscape heading into postseason play.
Stats review: Parity going into the playoffs
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High-Gravity Matchups
Virtus Segafredo Bologna and Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana scored important victories to climb up the table in Group B, while there was no movement this week in Group A. Virtus's win over Gran Canaria was particularly notable as the Italian team had suffered by far its biggest loss of the season in the first encounter with the Group B leaders back in Round 8. Integrating several new contributors in recent weeks, Virtus was far more competitive in Round 17, doing a dramatically better job of protecting the rim. While their play on the defensive end has been promising, their move to the fourth spot in the Group B standings is perhaps just as important to their postseason outlook as they are now in line to play their eighthfinals opponent in Bologna.
Wins vs. Winning Basketball
Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana's win over Valencia Basket was also important as it moved the winners into third place in Group B and gave them the tiebreaker to move up again in the final week of the regular season if they beat Promitheas Patras and Valencia loses to ratiopharm Ulm. Regardless of whether Cedevita moves up, they have built significant momentum heading into the postseason. They are 8-2 over their last 10 games after starting the year with just 2 wins over 7 games.
While they may end up towards the middle of the standings, Cedevita has been playing as well as almost any team in recent weeks as the standings only tell some of the story. Whether it's a couple of one-possession losses, major midseason roster changes, or injury issues, many things that do not necessarily reflect in their performance on the floor can pull teams one way or another in the standings over the course of a season. That is especially relevant for the group of teams vying for home-court advantage in the EuroCup. At the moment, the difference between assured home-court advantage in the single-elimination finals and semifinals and playing both of those games on the road is just two victories.
The EuroCup efficiency landscape paints that picture more vividly. While no two teams in Group A have the same win count and just two pairs of teams in Group B do so, the efficiency differentials of the teams in the middle of the standings are as packed together as they have been at any point this season. Even lower-seeded playoff teams like Umana Reyer Venice and Liektabelis Panevezys fall near the crowded group of teams that have been jockeying for position in the top four of both groups.
The only major outlier this season has been Joventut Badalona. While getting separation on the offensive end has been difficult this year, with just 0.02 points per possession separating the first- and seventh-most efficient offensive teams, Joventut has allowed 0.06 points per possession less than any other defense this season. That is the same gap between the second- and 14th-most efficient ranked defenses.
As the most complete defense in the EuroCup, Joventut has overscored opponents by a top-ranked 0.15 points per possession. Partizan NIS Belgrade, Cedevita, and Gran Canaria are all hovering around the 0.05 points per possession mark, but the next 11 teams in those ranks have a margin between plus or minus 0.03 points per possession. The intrigue there is that two of the five teams in that group with negative efficiency differentials have won more games than they have lost this season – further evidence of how much parity the EuroCup has this season.
The question now is how this uniquely level playing field looks through the lens of the new postseason format. More than any other EuroCup season, this year's playoffs will provide a revealing look into how far momentum, home-court advantage, consistency, matchups, and outright good fortune can take a group of teams that, on paper, have achieved similar levels of performance this season.
Looking Ahead to Round 18
The battle for home-court advantage is what drives much of the intrigue in the final week of the regular season. Lietkabelis has the most to gain in Group A this week. Winning makeup game over the Hamburg Towers on Monday would pull the Lithuanians even with a Boulogne Metropolitans 92 team that they'll visit in Round 18 to help determine who will get home-court advantage in the eighthfinals.