7DAYS EuroCup Quarterfinals breakdown: Turk Telekom Ankara vs. ratiopharm Ulm

The 7DAYS EuroCup Quarterfinals will get underway in the capital of Turkiye where Turk Telekom Ankara will take on ratiopharm Ulm. Turk Telekom reached the playoffs by placing second in Group B with a 13-5 record before holding off Germani Brescia in the eighthfinals. ratiopharm Ulm was third in the regular season in Group A with an 11-7 mark and then rallied to knock off Buducnost VOLI Podgorica in the opening round of the knockout stages.

The All-EuroCup candidates

Five players from this series are ranked among the top 10 in the EuroCup this season in performance index rating. Not only are these five stars all key figures for this showdown, but those from the winning team will see their chances to secure spots on the All-EuroCup Teams and even to be chosen as this season's MVP rise. Ulm center Bruno Caboclo tops the list; he leads all active players in average performance index rating with 19.0 per game. The only players above him either did not make the playoffs (Yogi Ferrell of Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana, 21.4) or were eliminated in the eighthfinals (Sam Dekker of London Lions, 19.6). However, what separates Caboclo from the pack is that he joined Ulm midway through the season and has played in only 10 games. A big game on this stage and getting Ulm to the semis would force voters to take notice.

Ulm's other top candidate is point guard Yago Dos Santos, who is 10th with an average PIR of 17.4. Turk Telekom boasts a trio of All-EuroCup candidates in Tyrique Jones, Jerian Grant and Axel Bouteille. Jones is tied for sixth in PIR with 18.1. Grant (17.9) is eighth and Bouteille (17.6) ninth. The big prize for winning this game is of course a ticket to the semifinals, but a nice shining All-EuroCup Trophy would be a nice bonus.

Are upsets contagious?

On paper, Turk Telekom is the favorite in this game. It had the better regular-season record, is the higher seed and plays at home. However, all upsets must begin with some self-belief and no team knows quite how that feels like Ulm. Last season, Ulm made history as the No. 8 seed when it upended top seed Joventut Badalona in the eighthfinals and then gave eventual champion Virtus Segafredo Bologna all it could handle in the quarterfinals; Ulm led 73-77 with 3 and a half minutes remaining before Virtus took over in the final minutes.

Though there have been many changes on the Ulm roster – and the bench – since then, there are five returnees who give the team the experience needed to launch another upset. Philipp Herkenhoff shined with 12 points and 7 boards as a starter against Joventut, but was injured and could not face Virtus. He was replaced by homegrown center Nicolas Bretzel, who went for 11 and 8 against Virtus. Guard Thomas Klepeisz started both games and scored 14 points on 4-for-4 three-point shooting against Virtus. Karim Jallow and teenager Fedor Zugic also played prominent roles last season and are back. Is that enough to trigger an upset against Turk Telekom? It's a good start!

Turk Telekom's advantage inside

Turk Telekom has found success going inside all season, whether by pounding the ball in the paint, throwing down alley-oops or getting put-backs through Jones and Michael Eric, getting mid-range jumpers from Nate Sestina and Bouteille, or penetration from Grant and Tony Taylor. Altogether, they combined for Turk Telekom to make 60.7% of the team's two-pointers, which was second-best in the regular season, and 22.0 two-pointers per game, which was third-best.

That strength of Turk Telekom could be especially critical in the quarterfinals against Ulm, which allowed its opponents to make 58.0% of their two-point shots. That is the third-highest number in the competition this season. Ulm has also given up a higher-than-average amount of offensive rebounds (11.0 per game, seventh-most in the EuroCup). In the eighthfinals, Ulm held Buducnost to 46.8% two-point shooting (22 for 47) and 9 offensive boards, and the hope for Ulm is that it can duplicate that type of defensive effort led by Caboclo, Josh Hawley and Herkenhoff, the latter of whom is first getting back to game speed after missing most of the season through injury.