Eighthfinals efficiency landscape

The 7DAYS EuroCup Eighthfinals are here. The graph below depicts the league efficiency landscape in terms of how far above and below the league average each playoff team has been on both ends of the floor. Even if this provides a roadmap moving forward, if we learned anything last season, the teams that have played well to this point are guaranteed nothing in a single-elimination tournament.

Prometey Slobozhanske vs. Veolia Towers Hamburg

Prometey represents one of the most fascinating test cases of any team from an analytics perspective. They dominated the possession margin all season but ultimately ranked right around average in efficiency on both ends of the floor despite their level of play spiking in a major way over their 11-game winning streak to close the group stage. No team in recent memory has turned things around quite as abruptly as Prometey. Whether that momentum pays dividends in the postseason will be fascinating to watch. They will host a Hamburg team that plays fast and has been effective when they have been able to collapse opposing defenses and find the open man.

7Bet-Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. Paris Basketball

Paris Basketball did as good of a job forcing teams to beat them with tough shots as nearly any team in the EuroCup as they finished third in Synergy Shot Quality on the defensive end and first in foul rate. Lietkabelis, in contrast, scratched and clawed their way to fourth place in Group A despite posting a negative scoring margin. Seven of their 10 victories were in games decided by two possessions or fewer while only two of their eight losses came fit that criterion. When they had chances to win games, they found ways to get it done more often than any team in the middle of the standings.

Ratiopharm Ulm vs. Buducnost VOLI Podgorica

Ulm closed the regular season +9 in point differential but captured third place in Group A anyway as they have looked like two very different teams this year. In the early going, they leaned heavily on their ball movement and three-point shooting. Nearly two-thirds of Ulm's made shots have been assisted this season thanks to the work of Yago Dos Santos and Juan Nunez. In the second half of the year, Ulm had an epiphany on the defensive end. After allowing 1.02 points per possession over the first half of the year, that defense allowed just 0.92 per possession over the last 9 games – the difference between ranking third and third--to-last in defensive efficiency this year. That creates perhaps the most intriguing Who does it best? matchup of the eighthfinals as Buducnost has ranked among the top few defensive units all year, ultimately finishing second in Group B.

Joventut Badalona vs. London Lions

Joventut finished third in offensive efficiency this season while London finished third in defensive efficiency. Joventut was stellar in half-court thanks to tremendous balance. Joventut was able to create shots consistently, playing through pick-and-rolls and post touches alike while picking and choosing their spots at an exceedingly high level on the perimeter. London's effectiveness on the defensive end is rooted in how its defenders protected the rim. They held opponents to just 58% shooting around the basket, this season's lowest mark and one of the best in recent EuroCup history. While the strength-on-strength matchup on the defensive end is worth watching, Joventut was one of just two teams to finish in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Hapoel Vegan Friendly Tel Aviv vs. Umana Reyer Venice

Hapoel was this season's top defensive unit and finished fourth in offensive efficiency, as well, in route to easily the league’s largest scoring differential, +194 points. In its maiden voyage in the EuroCup, Hapoel won a lot and often won big, posting three victories of more than 30 points. When its guards have gotten hot off the dribble, Hapoel has been extremely hard to beat thanks to being remarkably stingy in the half-court defensively. Aside from a hiccup against Buducnost in Podgorica, this team has not lost a game since early December. With 5 losses by four or fewer points, Reyer played better than its record suggests, doing a notably good job of controlling the tempo many nights. In fact, they were one of just five teams to play at an above average level on both ends of the floor. Losing both of their games against Joventut and Prometey this year, Reyer will have a chance to prove they can deliver against an elite opponent in the eighthfinals.

Promitheas Patras vs. Mincidelice JL Bourg en Bresse

Losing six straight games before beating Cedevita Oljimpija Ljubljana in Round 18, Bourg has had a somewhat uneven year. At their best, their potent perimeter shooting opens up quality opportunities inside, but they found mixed results around the rim late in the season. Their perimeter rotations are perhaps the bigger point of interest in the matchup with Promitheas, who led the EuroCup by knocking down 42% of their catch-and-shoot three-point attempts. Ranking as perhaps the streakiest team in the EuroCup this season, the Promitheas defense has allowed 0.90 points per possession in wins compared to 1.08 per possession in losses. They have scored 1.05 in wins and 0.92 in defeats, looking like an entirely different team when they are firing on all cylinders.

Gran Canaria vs. Frutti Extra Bursaspor

The surprise finalist in the first year of the EuroCup's single-elimination postseason format, Frutti Extra Bursaspor will need a special effort to recapture that magic as they face off with 15-win Gran Canaria in the eighthfinals. Like last year, Bursaspor remains one of the league’s more explosive offensive units and least effective defenses. Interestingly, the 1.02 points per possession they have allowed this year is actually an improvement on the 1.03 they allowed last year. In 2022, they figured things out defensively quite suddenly in the postseason. To advance, Bursaspor will have to do the same against this season's most efficient offensive unit to advance.

Gran Canaria has won 11 of their last 12 games. With an impressive level of balance and depth, they have shot an absurd 70% finishing around the rim this season, have made their spot up threes at a strong rate, and have been pretty effective in midrange spots as well. Doing a very good job challenging opposing ball-handlers to beat them and forcing turnovers on the defensive end, they figure to be a very difficult puzzle for Bursaspor to solve.

Turk Telekom Ankara vs. Germani Brescia

Having a similar year to Gran Canaria and Joventut on paper, Turk Telekom has a just as impressive balance. Finishing second in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency, they had some trouble with Paris and Gran Canaria in Group B, but otherwise had a stellar season. They have made shots consistently from all three levels, will look to go on runs against their opposition's second unit, and have held their own on the defensive end.

Splitting their season series with each of the top three teams in Group A, Brescia has been formidable for a team that ranks as this year's most "average" team on paper. What makes them interesting is how they got to that point, as they’ve scored an absurd 1.09 points per possession in wins and 0.88 per possession in losses, owning one of the largest offensive efficiency gaps in EuroCup history. When they start fast, they tend to finish fast, but that figures to be a tall task on the road.