Digging deeper into the subject of shooting, we can look at the game through the lens of Synergy Shot Quality – a data-driven model that estimates the expected value of every shot attempted based on a variety of factors, including distance, shot type, play type, defensive pressure and game situation. The graph above shows the rolling average of expected points per shot for both teams over all 40 minutes of action with the shading showing which team was getting better looks at different points in the game.
While in some spots the action on the court was in lockstep with the graph – notably where Turk Telekom jumped out to a double-digit lead before the teams went back and forth through most of the middle quarters – that was not the case at two key moments in the game: Paris’s quick comeback right before halftime and its fourth-quarter surge both defied expectations.
The latter of those stretches shows just how hard it can be to win in the EuroCup. In the final 10 minutes, Turk Telekom consistently created better shots than its defense allowed to Paris but shot just 1-for-7 from beyond the arc. In contrast, Paris’s shooters nailed their last 4 three-point attempts, including a desperate heave from Axel Toupane to beat the shot clock after a broken play. As such, the French club took control of the game during a stretch in which Turk Telekom was actually getting better looks.
Such is life in the EuroCup. Ultimately, makes and misses drive outcomes, regardless of shot quality. The question now becomes whether Turk Telekom’s success creating quality looks leads to better things in subsequent rounds and if Paris can continue to lean on its ability to make more shots than expected moving forward.
Looking Ahead to Round 2
Frutti Extra Brusaspor made a Cinderella run to the EuroCup Finals last year while Joventut Badalona bowed out in the eighthfinals after finishing atop the regular season standings. Despite integrating several key new contributors, both teams cruised to wins in Round 1, setting the stage for an intriguing Round 2 matchup. Much like last season, the first encounter between these teams this year could hinge on the chess match that will play out between Bursaspor’s ball screen-heavy attack and how Joventut looks to defend it.
