Stats review: Final Four teams vs. each other

A week away from the final action, looking back at the games between the Final Four teams can shed light on what to expect in Berlin.

The Turkish Airlines EuroLeague Final Four is set with only two of the four teams that earned home-court advantage for the playoffs surviving to advance to Berlin. Improbable, but not unprecedented, this is not the first time the bracket has broken that way. Back in 2018, the parity in the middle of the playoff field and favorable matchups led to a pair of lower seeds pushing through to the Final Four with no series that year going past four games.

Even with that previous case, this year has still felt different. With Olympiacos Piraeus clawing its way back from a 1-2 series deficit, Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul needing overtime in Game 5 to advance, and Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens narrowly surviving Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv's bid to score an upset of its own, the drama in the playoffs was palpable. As much as parity in the EuroLeague is not new, this season has felt like uncharted territory in the manner it has extended into the postseason.

The question now is whether the upsets continue onto the league's biggest stage, and the regular-season matchups between these teams may provide some clarity about what those chances look like.

Real vs. Final Four teams

Real Madrid stood alone atop the standings with a four-win margin and swept Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz convincingly enough to conjure memories of its nearly unbeaten run through the first half of the regular season. Facing the other three Final Four participants in consecutive rounds around early December, Los Blancos suffered their first loss of the season in Round 11 at Fenerbahce in overtime before dispatching Olympiacos and Panathinaikos in Greece to close their most grueling road trip of the season. Losing to Panathinaikos and Fenerbahce back-to-back after the midseason break came in what was ultimately Real's worst stretch of a difficult second half of the year. As a result, Real split the regular season series with its fellow semifinalists, putting up a better record on the road than at home.

Olympiacos vs. Final Four teams

Olympiacos did the same, finish 3-3 against the other Final Four teams, despite posting a less encouraging efficiency differential. The Reds were not, however, able to score a victory over Real Madrid during the regular season. Despite slowing the game down to their EuroLeague-low pace and controlling the glass, Olympiacos had a difficult time corralling Facundo Campazzo and Dzanan Musa while Real Madrid was able to put a lid on the rim, limiting Olympiacos to just 49% shooting around the rim. How Olympiacos handles the ball and finds ways to put pressure on Walter Tavares figure to be keys to any potential upset bid.

Panathinaikos vs. Final Four teams

Panathinaikos may have lost most of its games against the other Final Four competitors, but the Greens finished scored double-digit wins over Fenerbahce and on Real Madrid's court while playing Olympiacos close on the road in the second half of the regular season. Indeed, their first three losses against the same team came during a troubling 6-7 start. the Greens' mid-year turnaround has rendered their early struggles moot. The question is how far that takes them against a battle-tested Fenerbahce team that weathered five games and held down Most Valuable Player Mike James to best AS Monaco in the quarterfinals. In their early-season loss to Fenerbahce, Panathinaikos had a hard time getting shots to fall outside of the paint, even going 10-for-19 from the free-throw line. In their early February win, Kendrick Nunn had a productive outing to compensate for a 2-for-12 effort from beyond the arc.

Fenerbahce vs. Final Four teams

Whether Fenerbahce, the lone Final Four team to post a winning record against the others, can prove that its defense has been the driving factor behind Panathinaikos's struggles against it looms large. The Turkish club turned things around after a slow start to the season in their own right and have defended the perimeter at a very high level all season, but gave the Greek powerhouse fits in particular. It will need to avoid a regression to the mean to contend with a Panathinaikos defense that surged to narrowly miss out on usurping Real Madrid as the EuroLeague's most efficient defense of the season overall.