With the Turkish Airlines EuroLeague Playoffs beginning this week, there is no shortage of trends to keep an eye on.
Stats review: Trends to follow in the playoffs
Real Madrid vs. Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz
Defensive Identity. Real Madrid held Baskonia to 77 points in Round 1, bullying it to earn a road win in a game where it struggled to get much going offensively themselves. After allowing a dominant 0.88 points per possession over the first half of the season, Real has conceded 1.00 points per possession over the second half of the year. After looking like this season’s top defense by a wide margin for several months, Real performed at a league-average level for several more to close the year. This team is going to be very formidable regardless, but its efforts in transition and closing out shooters could be key to its ability to return to the form that made Los Blancos the very obvious favorite early on.
How hot is Howard? It is no secret that Markus Howard is a flamethrower; every team in the EuroLeague knows that. That has not stopped him from scoring in bunches on many nights this season including the 35-point effort that saw him go 7-for-12 from beyond the arc to beat Real at the WiZink Center only a few weeks ago. On his best nights, he takes and makes tough shots on the move and off the dribble through tight windows from well beyond the three-point line. Shooting 43% from beyond the arc in wins and 34% in losses, that tends to be the X-factor for Baskonia as he’s nearly unguardable at times when he gets hot.
Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens vs. Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv
Pace and possession. While Maccabi is the lower seed in this series, it defeated Panathinaikos twice during the regular season. Maccabi's ability to control the tempo of the game was significant in both victories, unsurprising considering it finished the regular season ranked first in the EuroLeague in pace and third in offensive rebounding rate. Panathinaikos more than held its own on the glass, but Maccabi outscored the Greens 33 to 17 in transition across their pair of wins. How well the two-seed shoots the three and takes care of the ball will likely play a key role in whether Maccabi can control the tempo of the game.
Scoring-passing balance. Panathinaikos was one of the most productive pick-and-roll offenses in the EuroLeague this season. Kendrick Nunn, Kostas Sloukas, Luca Vildoza and Jerian Grant all found some success looking to score off the dribble, but one of the strengths of this offense was the stellar 41% shooting from beyond the arc that resulted from their passes out of pick-and-rolls. Maccabi did a very good job limiting their ball handlers in their regular season matchups, making them give up the ball, but benefited from more bounces on the open looks they subsequently allowed than they can reasonably expect to throughout a five-game series.
AS Monaco vs. Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul
Shot-making. No teams in the EuroLeague attempted more pull-up jump shots this season than AS Monaco. It scored 25 points with dribble jumpers in its win over Fenerbahce, but only 15 in its loss as they split their regular season series. Despite finishing last in spot-up scoring efficiency this season, this offense has been able to lean on Mike James’s ability to pick opposing defenses apart off the dribble and how Fenerbahce reckons with that will likely set the tone for this series.
Home sweet home. Fenerbahce surged offensively over the second half of the regular season, ultimately rising to lead the EuroLeague in overall offensive efficiency heading into the postseason. Its success on that end of the floor is firmly rooted in its performance at home. Averaging an absolutely devastating 1.19 points per possession in Istanbul and a slightly below-average 0.98 points per possession on the road where it won fewer games than any other quarterfinalist, Fenerbahce’s ability to find a rhythm and steal a game on the road could make this series very interesting.
FC Barcelona vs. Oiympiacos Piraeus
Inside-out. Barcelona has not matched up with Olympiacos since January, but in the two wins over its playoff adversary during the regular season, Barca shot the ball as well as it did against any other team. Making 50% of its catch-and-shoot threes, Barcelona moved the ball at a very high level, playing through the post and how Olympiacos deals with the passing ability of the Barca big men is something to monitor early on.
Seeking balance. Olympiacos has some things to address defensively against Barcelona, but found some positive things to take away from their regular season encounters on the offensive end. Thomas Walkup and Nigel Williams-Goss found quite a bit of success creating out of pick-and-rolls, but Barcelona’s shooting stifled Olympiacos’s ability to get out in the open floor and create quality looks out of the secondary break.