In a one-game, do-or-die playoff, anything can happen, but some season-long statistical trends may offer clues to the possible storylines when Virtus Segafredo Bologna hosts Lietkabelis Panevezys in their 7DAYS EuroCup Eighthfinals winner-take-all battle.
Eighthfinals clues: Virtus Segafredo Bologna vs. Lietkabelis Panevezys
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No EuroCup team has been as efficient scoring around the rim this season as Virtus. Nonetheless, what could influence its chances this postseason is the team's ability to make open shots from the perimeter – or not.
Virtus shooters have made a well-above-average 38% of their guarded catch-and-shoot jump shots in half-court situations all season. Oddly enough, they have an identical 38% on the same shots when they are unguarded, which falls well below average. When they are making those open shots, however, Virtus has scored in bunches.
Lietkabelis has had similar issues with its perimeter shot-making but has done much of its best work defensively.
Defending the pick-and-roll at an extremely high level on the year, Lietkabelis has protected the rim more consistently on some nights than others, which, given Virtus's effectiveness inside, will be a key factor to watch once their do-or-die eighthfinal game starts.
The Lithuanian team may well decide to focus on interior defense and take a chance on Virtus shooters making open shots at the same rate as they do guarded ones.