Stats review: A make-or-miss proposition

The pair of Round 14 games that had the biggest impact on the BKT EuroCup standings both hinged on three-point shooting.

In Group A, Umana Reyer Venice kept their postseason hopes alive with an overtime home victory against Besiktas Emlakjet Istanbul. Reyer needed every one of the 16 three-pointers they made to overcome Besiktas's dominant margin in the possession battle. Their scorching-hot 62% shooting from beyond the arc helped Reyer escape with the win.

In Group B, Buducnost VOLI Podgorica overcame some poor shooting of their own by holding Mincidelice JL Bourg en Bresse to just 2-for-18 from beyond the arc over the last two quarters. That outcome allowed Dreamland Gran Canaria to slide back into first place after they snapped their three-game losing streak against 7bet-Lietkabelis Panevezys.

The bounces teams get from beyond the arc often tend to dictate the outcome of games, and, in the case of both key games last week, had a relevant impact on the standings.

Some teams get a lot more of those bounces than others. As the graph above suggests, what Buducnost accomplished in the second half of that game on the defensive end was really something, considering that Bourg is one of three teams that have shot the three-pointer nearly 5% better than average this season, both off the catch and off the dribble. That's no small difference, given that the average EuroCup team attempts over 25 three-pointers per game; a 5% difference in accuracy equates to just under 4 points per game.

For their own part, Buducnost may be the most mismatched team in the EuroCup from beyond the arc. They rank second in pull-up three-point percentage but have struggled to knock down catch-and-shoot jump shots. It would not be especially surprising if a rise to the mean between those two types of shots propelled Buducnost into the playoff picture in tightly packed Group B.

Catch-and-shoot volume

That is especially true considering the role volume plays in this equation. While this graph is meant to focus on accuracy, it is worth noting that a team's vertical placement on this graph is dramatically more important than where they land horizontally as 68% of all three-point attempts in the EuroCup come in catch-and-shoot situations.

With only four regular season games remaining, results are critical moving forward. With the top-three seeds in both groups having already clinched playoff berths, there's still a lot to settle towards the middle of the standings.

The competition in Group B is going to be especially fierce, but there's still plenty of possibilities in Group A as well. Which teams are able to will in a few extra shots from beyond the arc may well be the story at the end of the regular season, just like it was in Round 14.