Stats Review: Bursaspor's trend-setting rise

The 7DAYS EuroCup's new single-elimination format flipped one of the competition's most notable trends on its head.

The Top 16 and Balance

In three of the previous five seasons – all played under the former Top 16 format – the EuroCup's most-efficient offensive team did not advance out of the regular season. In the two exceptions, the teams that were out in front in points per possession were also fairly good on the defensive end, too. Teams with high-powered offenses but lackluster defenses struggled to gain meaningful traction in the previous format, often falling behind more balanced teams in the standings early in the season. Getting stops consistently was not just a key for the EuroCup's top teams in recent years – it was nothing short of a requirement.

Single-Elimination and Scoring

Fast-forward to this season, which marked the introduction of a longer regular season and single-elimination postseason, and Frutti Extra Bursaspor – a team that comfortably leads the competition in offensive efficiency but ranks last in defense, allowing more points per possession than it scores – is through to the semifinals.

The EuroCup's new format was inevitably going to create some new trends. The question was: which trends? They could be standard things like home teams dominating and top seeds taking care of business. Or they could tilt toward outlier possibilities like a lower seed catching lightning in a bottle to score multiple upsets, or maybe an underachieving favorite getting healthy or finding chemistry at the right time to push through the finals.

While it's still too early to say what trend will hold, the first single-elimination playoffs have had a little bit of everything, including only one top-six seed breaking through to the semifinals and Bursaspor's referendum on one of the league's most glaring recent trends.

While Bursaspor earned a postseason berth essentially on offense alone, benefitting from the EuroCup's larger playoff field, they also have found some answers defensively in wins over Partizan Nis Belgrade and Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana. Scoring 1.05 points per possession over 89.5 possessions per game, they have played fast and efficient in those victories while also improving to allow just 0.92 points per possession on defense – a huge leap from the 1.06 points per possession Bursaspor gave to opponents throughout the rest of the season.

On Tuesday in the semis, Bursaspor will take on a MoraBanc Andorra team that has also exceeded expectations in wins over Buducnost VOLI Podgorica and Gran Canaria. Ranking 10th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency on the season, Andorra is playing a bit better now on both sides of the ball. Andorra's timely defense in the final 10 minutes against Gran Canaria was a pivotal, showing how a single-elimination format magnifies every minute of action.

The intrigue in the Andorra-Bursaspor matchup may be who controls the pace of play. The fastest- and slowest-paced EuroCup teams this season averaged 88.3 and 77.7 possessions per game respectively. Bursaspor's 89.5-possession average through two playoff games represents a similar gap to Andorra's 79.5, so Andorra's ability to either slow down Bursaspor's high-powered offense or match it should be decisive.

On the other side of the bracket there are two of the usual suspects. No team has lifted the trophy in the EuroCup as often as Valencia, whose second-ranked offense led to comfortable playoffs wins so far over Hamburg Towers and Boulogne Metropolitans. On Wednesday, Valencia hosts Virtus Segafredo Bologna, a team with great balance that was very competitive all season but bolstered their roster with the additions of Daniel Hackett and Tornike Shengelia in early March. Winning seven of the last eight games, Virtus is a different team than the one that lost to Valencia by 1 point in Round 4 and 6 points on the road in Round 13. The strength-against-strength matchup between Valencia's offense and Virtus's defense will be one of the highlights of the semifinals.