Players scoring above expectations

The second half of the 2022-23 7DAYS EuroCup began with Mincidelice JL Bourg en Bresse and Gran Canaria getting one victor clear at the top of the standings in Group A and Group B, respectively. Interestingly, both are tied for just the 12th ranking in defensive efficiency at the moment. However, if Gran Canaria has become the EuroCup's fifth most efficient offense thanks to impeccable timing, Bourg has risen even higher in that ranking, to second, on the strength of its remarkable shot-making.

The table below lists this season's top players in Synergy Shot Making (SSM), a metric calculated by subtracting a player's expected points per shot from the points per shot he actually scored. The result is a figure representing how much he scored above expectations.

Expectation in this case is measured by Synergy Shot Quality (SSQ), which takes a data-driven, league-specific approach to the vast of amount of data Synergy collects on every shot to estimate the value of each in the EuroCup over the last decade. The model integrates everything from the type of shot to where it was attempted from to what kind of defensive pressure was applied among nearly a dozen other variables.

Taking those estimates and applying them to every field goal attempted so far this season, the league's most effective shooters relative to expectations are apparent. As the table shows, several of the players who have taken great advantage of their shot attempts play for Bourg. Pierre Pelos may not attempt a ton of shots each game, but he's having one of the longest sustained 70%-55%-90% shooting seasons in modern European basketball history. With Frantz Massenat and Isiaha Mike also falling in the top five on the table above, it's not hard to see why Bourg has been so difficult to beat; several of its key players have been performing far beyond expectations.

Joventut Badalona is the only other team with multiple players on this ranking. Joel Parra and Andres Feliz have not only exceeded expectations by consistently making their shots, but have done so despite high-SSQ attempts. Frutti Extra Bursaspor currently leads the EuroCup in SSQ, but Joventut and several other teams towards the top of the standings are close.

Unsurprisingly, given how often they create for themselves off the dribble, Tony Taylor of Turk Telekom Ankara and Yogi Ferrell of Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana have the lowest SSQ among this season's 10 leaders on the SSM scale. While one might expect that it's easier for a three-point marksman like Robin Christen of Ulm to climb these rankings, there's a variety of roles represented.

It is worth noting that there is one group that tends to struggle with SSM and that is lob-catching big men. Players who operate almost exclusively around the rim face an uphill battle to exceed expectations given how high their SSQ is to begin with. Ismael Kamagate of Paris Basketball, for example, has an SSM of just 0.03, but given that his EuroCup-high SSQ of 1.52 dwarfs every player in the table above, that's more of an accomplishment than meets the eye.

It goes without saying that it is important for teams to work hard to create high-quality shots and avoid low-quality ones on the offensive end. But at the EuroCup level, where highly effective play execution is a given, it's the final step of shot-making by the players often determines just how potent a team will ultimately prove to be.