Synergy Shot Quality reveals which teams are best at taking away easy points – and why it matters now more than ever
Stats review: EuroCup’s top defenses and what makes them tick
Statistiques
3 Minute de lecture
Only five rounds remain in the BKT EuroCup Regular Season following Round 13, in which Bahcesehir College Istanbul scored a critical win over Cedevita Olimpija Ljubljana in Arena Stozice to get one game clear of them for the second bye to the quarterfinals from Group A. With a game against first-place Hapoel Midtown Jerusalem looming in two weeks, this was a critical victory for the Turkish club as Cedevita has a less daunting schedule to close the season — albeit with more road games.
In the second-lowest scoring game of the season so far, Bahcesehir put together a standout defensive effort, holding Cedevita to just 2-of-19 shooting from beyond the arc. While some of that can be attributed to a few bad bounces for the hosts, the visitors contested nearly every one of their three-point attempts for a stretch of nearly 18 minutes in the second half, showing an impressive sense of urgency coming out of the break.
While this was an extreme example, Bahcesehir’s defense has been limiting quality looks all season. The table above lists this season’s top defenses in terms of how well they limit the percentage of high-quality shots they face. Quality, in this case, is measured in Synergy Shot Quality, a metric that calculates the expected value of any given shot attempt based on a data-driven model that considers all the advanced tracking data Synergy Sports has collected on every field goal attempted in EuroCup games over the last decade.
What limiting quality shots means differs from team to team and sometimes from lineup to lineup. For some units, it means loading up inside or relying on an impactful shot blocker to prevent attempts around the rim, but for teams like Bahcesehir, it is the efforts to take away catch-and-shoot opportunities along the three-point line. That is easier said than done at this level, as it learned in the upset home loss to Neptunas Klaipeda in Round 9. That said, the Turkish club has done a good job of closing out shooters this season, ranking prominently in how few spot-up opportunities it allows as well as how effectively it contests them. Those two things go hand in hand, as the sense of urgency Bahcesehir brings in rotation often allows it to affect the shots it does face and is a big reason it leads all teams in steals as well.
U-BT Cluj-Napoca has found the best balance in the EuroCup this season, ranking fourth in limiting attempts around the rim while also ranking third in the percentage of catch-and-shoot jumpers it contests. A lot of its success on that front can be traced to its attention to detail in the pick-and-roll.
BAXI Manresa and Buducnost VOLI Podgorica fall on opposite ends of the spectrum, facing the most and the fewest shots at the rim so far this season, respectively. While Manresa plays tight defense on the perimeter while prioritizing closing space over forcing turnovers, Buducnost is quick to help inside. Both teams aim to take something away from opposing offenses, but that is only one factor in their ultimate success.
This season’s top two defensive units in overall efficiency, Cosea JL Bourg-en-Bresse and Turk Telekom Ankara, force turnovers and bad shots more steadily than they take away quality looks. There is more than one route to success on that end, and the teams that can find them down the stretch will give themselves a chance to gain some ground in the playoff race.