Stats Review: Timing is everything

A flip of first-place teams at the top of Group B had everything to do with late-possession poise.

Mincidelice JL Bourg en Bresse made its move in Group B, ascending to the top of the standings, by handing the previous leader, Dreamland Gran Canaria, a third consecutive loss in Round 13. Despite getting outrebounded on the offensive glass, turning the ball over 19 times, and allowing Gran Canaria to erase a 15-point halftime lead, Bourg escaped with an eight-point overtime victory that has shaken up the impending late-season push for home-court advantage across the league.

Bourg scored 16 points over 14 possessions used in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock in the second half and overtime to stave off a convincing comeback attempt from the visitors. After a scorching-hot second quarter, Bourg's offense began to cool off, but timely shot-making ultimately proved to be the difference.

To understand the significance of Bourg's performance it's important to note that while only 18% of half-court possessions are used in the final 4 seconds of the shot or game clock, those opportunities are converted for just 0.82 points per possession – a massive drop-off from the 0.98 points per possession scored on average over all other non-transition possessions where teams are working against a set defense.

It is also noteworthy that the gap between short-clock possessions and all other possessions would be even greater if not for the outlier performance of Paris Basketball when under duress this season. Only one team is scoring more consistently in the half court overall than Paris is with the clock winding down.

Bourg is one of several teams hovering around the league average in terms of late-clock execution, making its shooting against Gran Canaria to leapfrog the visitors into first place even timelier.

When teams come through with a performance like that, it is often the result of a group effort; even players with extreme usage virtually never use more than 30% of their team's late-clock possessions. Most volume scoring primary ball handlers hover around 20% of their team total. Bourg's victory was a good reflection of this as five players accounted for their 18 short-clock points, with several others involved in making the assists.

Those assist-makers are often just as important to late-clock scoring as the actual shooter. While a player who can make something out of nothing one-on-one is an asset in key moments, the poise of a team to move the defense and find the open man with the clock winding down can be even more valuable. Indeed, 13 of Bourg's points with the clock winding down were assisted because its execution was not rattled by clock pressure.

While short-clock performance played a role in the biggest win of Round 13, it is a point of interest moving forward as well. Paris has taken the reigns as the league's most dominant team in recent weeks, with execution and shooting accuracy deep into the clock having a lot to do with it. How sustainable that outlier-level advantage that Paris has in late-clock performance proves to be moving forward will be fascinating to watch.