The Turkish Airlines EuroLeague Playoffs have arrived. Before the best-of-five action begins, it is worth noting what this group of teams has gone through to get here. Of the 306 regular season games played this season, 42% of them were decided by two possessions or fewer – the highest percentage of all-time. This season has been historically competitive and the group of teams that has risen above and into the playoffs has had to survive a truly unrelenting gauntlet.
A truly battle-tested playoff field
Statistika
5 Min čitanja
The graph below depicts the league efficiency landscape in terms of how far above and below the league average each playoff team has performed on both ends of the floor. The proximity of many of these teams to the league average, combined with some mismatching between efficiency differential and records, suggests that this group had to bring postseason-level urgency to the regular season just to get here and, therefore, is quite possibly the most battle-tested playoff field in recent history.
Olympiacos Piraeus vs. Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul
Catching fire in January to surge to the top of the standings and ultimately hold onto the league's best efficiency differential, Olympiacos has had a magical season. Much of its success is rooted in the rise of Sasha Vezenkov, who did not just lead the EuroLeague in scoring but did so while posting one of the five most-efficient offensive seasons of all-time. How Fenerbahce approaches guarding him in a best-of-five series will be a point of interest. Earlier this season, Fenerbahce was the class of the league on the defensive end, allowing just 0.93 points per possession over a 9-1 start. But the same team finished the season allowing a 12th-ranked 1.01 points per possession. After doing a terrific job limiting opportunities in transition and along the three-point line to start the season, Fenerbahce will need to regain that edge against an Olympiacos team that led the league in Synergy Shot Quality and finished third in offensive efficiency.
FC Barcelona vs. Zalgiris Kaunas
Despite finishing just sixth in offensive efficiency, Barcelona has been one of the most consistent teams on that end of the floor this season, spacing the floor well and leveraging its ability to create out of pick-and-rolls and post-ups alike to score as steadily as anyone. Reliable offense has established a very good baseline, but Barcelona has been great when its defense has risen to the occasion. That defense has allowed 0.93 points per possession in half-court situations when winning as compared to 1.01 in losses – the difference between ranking third and third-to-last in defensive efficiency. Zalgiris, one of the league's streakiest teams, is an interesting matchup for Barcelona in that regard. Posting an efficient differential of +0.10 in wins and -0.19 in losses – higher than the league's top team and below its worst, respectively – Zalgiris has thrived on momentum. How well Zalgiris can establish a rhythm early in these games could provide revealing insight into how things play out.
Real Madrid vs. Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade
This is the best strength-on-strength matchup of the quarterfinals, with Partizan's top-ranked offense taking on Real Madrid's top-ranked defense. After starting the year 4-9, Partizan scored 1.10 points per possession the rest of the way, which is on par with the juggernaut offenses that Efes rode to back-to-back titles. What makes Partizan's explosive play on the offensive end unique is that this is by far the league's most aggressive midrange scoring team. While a league-high 88% of Real Madrid's jump shots come from beyond the arc, a league-low 66% of Partizan's are three-pointers. Partizan's shooters have thrived on the very shots that defenses are often hoping for opposing offenses to take. That element of this matchup is of particular interest as Real has routinely anchored Walter Tavares inside and forced more midrange jumpers than any team in the EuroLeague this season. Whether this series is won or lost from five meters away will be fascinating to track.
AS Monaco vs. Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv
Finishing the season with the ninth-highest point-different but the fourth-best record, no team had timing as impeccable as Monaco's this season. While some teams live and die by three-pointers, Monaco survived to earn home-court advantage while ranking last in both points-per-jump shot scored and allowed. The latter of those rankings will be an important consideration against a Maccabi team that has heated up over the last 12 games and generated more of its half-court offense out of pick-and-rolls than any other team this season. With Wade Baldwin playing the best basketball of his career, how Monaco looks to guard the perimeter could go a long way in dictating the trajectory of this series.