They may know each other exceedingly well, but this is the first time Real Madrid and Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz face off in the EuroLeague Playoffs.
5 key questions: Real Madrid vs. Baskonia
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What poison does Baskonia's defense pick?
One reason that Real ruled from the get-go this season is the team's incredible combination of talent, size and experience. It's a pick-your-poison proposition for Baskonia, and the choices are many. Six Real players average PIRs of 13.6 PIR or higher per game; double the number of any other team. Those six – Vincent Poirier (29.3 PIR per 40 minutes), Dzanan Musa (28.1), Walter Tavares (25.8), Facundo Campazzo (25.5), Guerschon Yabusele (24.8) and Mario Hezonja (24.3) – all rank in the top 26 PIRs this season on a per-minute basis; only Olympiacos, with three such players, comes close. Notice, that sextet is perfectly balanced around the court, with the reinforced center position ensuring that one top-15 player in per-minute performance is patrolling the paint at all times. They are an ever-changing combination of shooters, dunkers, floor-runners, bruisers, above-the-rim crashers, mid-range smoothies and specialists at drawing fouls. Now, who do you try to stop? Better not to ask. Baskonia will be playing Whac-A-Mole without a moment's relaxation as long as this series lasts.
Will Real protect its home floor?
By seeding alone, this series is held up to be the most lopsided of the playoffs. Real finished the regular season with the most win (27) and the widest first-place margin of victories (4) under the eight-year-old round-robin format. Baskonia eked into eighth place. As such, Real has the all-important home-court advantage. Nonetheless, Real's three home losses this season came in the last eight games against three playoff teams, including the final one against Baskonia – which, admittedly, had much more to play for that night. But Real also trailed already-eliminated Crvena Zvezda 89-93 at home with 2 minutes left before finishing with a 12-1 run. Otherwise, it would have gone 0-for-4 at home since February 1. And remember that Real coughed up its first two home games in the last season's playoff against Partizan. Baskonia will not forget any of that, of course. What's more, the challengers come with a shootout mentality and nothing to lose while Real is under pressure to win its first back-to-back titles since the 1960s. Need we repeat that no regular-season winner has lifted the EuroLeague trophy under the new format? Danger has lurked somewhere for all recent defending champs.
Can Markus Howard blow it up again?
With a defense anchored by the EuroLeague's top two shot-blockers, Vincent Poirier (1.5 bpg.) and Walter Tavares (1.4), Real's defenders can risk sticking closer to opposing perimeter shooters, knowing if they get faked and beaten on the dribble, help is behind them. That's one reason that Real leads the league in both two-point (50.7%) and three-point (33.3%) defense. One player who upended that dynamic is scoring sensation Markus Howard, who drilled 7 three-pointers among 35 points, tied for the second-most ever on Real's floor, as Baskonia won 91-94 at WiZink Center in Round 33. Howard will get a lot of Real's defensive attention, but he's used to that. Baskonia's ability to parlay all the attention on Howard into clean shots for his teammates will be essential to its chances of springing an upset, even if he doesn't score in bunches. Still, Howard's unique ability to strike from any distance will give Baskonia a puncher's chance in any game, as he can single-handedly erase deficits or supply sudden leads in what seems like a heartbeat.
How much does experience weigh?
We're about to find out. Real's roster has all the playoff pedigree possible, it seems. All told, its players combine for 193 games worth of EuroLeague Playoff experience. They are led by Sergio Llull, the EuroLeague record-holder with 46 playoff appearances, Rudy Fernandez (39) and Sergio Rodriguez (37). If "El Chacho" appears in three games of this series, all three will rank in the top five all-time. Meanwhile, for Baskonia, Chima Moneke played three games last season with AS Monaco, but he is injured and may not appear in this series. That leaves only Dani Diez whose four-game EuroLeague Playoffs experience dates to 2014 – when he was with Real. On the bright side for Baskonia, Coach Ivanovic has passed this way before 37 times and won 19 of those playoff games, while Real's Chus Mateo is 3-2 from last season, which is not to discount his many years as an assistant on the bench of the defending champs. We know that in a tight series, game-to-game adjustments matter, and Mateo aced that task after Real fell behind 0-2 to Partizan last season, never to lose another game. How much Ivanovic can transfer his experience in the cauldron of the playoffs to his players who have always wanted to be on this stage will be telling.
Can Baskonia steal one in the capital?
That's the bottom line in any five-game playoff. An in-country series means less travel and more familiarity with the opponents, their arena and their fans. This may be their first EuroLeague Playoffs series, but Real and Baskonia are long-time Spanish League postseason rivals, steeped in each other's stories. Neither is intimidated playing on the other's floor. That has been especially true of Baskonia, which not only leads its head-to-head with Real in EuroLeague games this century by 8-10 – all of them since 2016 – but has come home victorious from three of its last four trips to WiZink Center. If there's one head coach who relishes starting a series like this on the road, it's Ivanovic, who holds a 7-6 record vs. Real in EuroLeague games. That includes a 3-0 sweep in his only EuroLeague Playoff series against Real, back in 2006 when he coached FC Barcelona. Baskonia will be undermanned to start the series with Moneke sidelined, but these underdogs will never feel like they cannot beat the odds. Real will have to prove its supremacy to this Baskonia team every step of the way.