We asked the EuroLeague.net staff what four questions they are left with needing answers for as the semifinals look in Berlin on Friday.
Four final questions before Friday's semis
The first do-or-die games of the 2014 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague Final Four come back-to-back on a busy Friday evening, with Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens vs. Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul tipping off at 18:00 CEST, followed by Real Madrid vs. Olympiacos Piraeus at 21:00 CEST. After all the analysis in the run-up to the big event, EuroLeague.net experts are asking four key questions that will be answered in the semifinals.
Can Fenerbahce avoid a slow start?
Fenerbahce head coach Sarunas Jasikevicius will need his team to start the semifinal against Panathinaikos better than the Greens have been performing after tipoff throughout the 2023-24 season. Fenerbahce was tied or trailed at the end of the first quarter in as many as 23 of its 39 games so far this campaign, including four of the team's five playoff games. That's not just more slow starts than any of the other teams in Berlin this weekend, but more than any team any playoff team, as well. In that series against AS Monaco, Fenerbahce trailed after the first quarter in each of the first three games and in Game 5. Still, it won all but one of those four games. Looking at the entire season, Fenerbahce went on to win 16 of 23 games when it was not ahead after the opening 10 minutes. So, one could say that Fenerbahce did not mind playing from behind too much, but one has to wonder if the team can afford more slow starts at the Final Four.
Can Mathias Lessort make his freebies?
If one Final Four player alone can make or break his team's chances, it may be Panathinaikos center Mathias Lessort. The All-EuroLeague First Team center is a force of nature whose sole blemish this season was free throw shooting that teetered at 65.8% until the playoffs before plummeting to 41.2% during them, when he made just 21 of 51 tries at the line. It's no accident that Lessort's 5.8 free throw attempts per game led all regular-season players while his whopping 10.2 in the playoffs more than doubled anyone else and ranked second all-time: Opponents would rather watch Lessort miss or even split free throws than dunk on them. His 3-for-14 showing when he was last seen in Game 5 set a playoffs record for misses that was just 1 shy of the all-time EuroLeague record for free throw futility.
None of this is lost on Fenerbahce, of course, so we can expect to see Lessort standing still instead of soaring above the rim for many of his shots in the first semifinal. How Fenerbahce spends those fouls will condition its own chances, but expect a basketball rarity early on Friday when an army of Panathinaikos fans roar if and when Lessort makes his first free throw.
Panathinaikos will live or die with Lessort because he does so many good things on the court, but also because his only backup, Kostas Antetokounmpo, shoots even worse free throws, 40.9% for the season. Meanwhile, another of the most-fouled players in the league is their opponent, Fenerbahce's Johnathan Motley, who makes 71.2% and was seen finishing Thursday night's practice spending minutes on end at the free throw stripe.
Bangers gonna bang and dunkers gonna dunk, but only if they get that chance. If not, the first semifinal could turn on how well they handle their freebies.
Can the Olympiacos bigs deal with Tavares and Poirier?
Real Madrid star center Walter Tavares is the only former Final Four MVP playing in Berlin this weekend. Tavares has been a headache and a natural-born mismatch for all opponents everywhere. He has changed endless shots on defense with his long arms, quick feet and outstanding timing. On offense, Tavares has developed a set of post moves, becoming a reliable mid-range jumper and free throw shooter. Together with Vincent Poirier, Tavares has dominated pretty much every other frontcourt they've played. That said, however, Real's semifinals opponent, Olympiacos Piraeus, has plenty of depth at the "five" position. Moses Wright has been a great addition and Nikola Milutinov is finally healthy and ready to dominate the boards along with Moustapha Fall. When these teams played in Round 12, Tavares and Poirier combined for 11 points and 8 rebounds. Tavares missed his team's game against the Reds in Round 23, in which Poirier had 7 points and 9 rebounds. Real won both games. Can Real's bigs dominate the Reds' frontcourt in such an important game?
How much does experience matter?
Those with Final Four experience will tell you it makes a world of difference. And for this season’s semifinalists, that encompasses nearly all the key players from both Real Madrid and Olympiacos. On the other hand, it is hard to imagine Panathinaikos winning the first semifinal without getting strong production from some of the following key contributors: Kendrick Nunn, Lessort, Konstantinos Mitoglou, Jerian Grant, Marius Grigonis and Antetokounmpo. All are Final Four first-timers. In face, everyone on the Greens' roster except Kostas Sloukas and Ioannis Papapetrou are making their Final Four debuts on Friday. Their semifinals opponent, Fenerbahce, has a little more Final Four experience, but key players Scottie Wilbekin, Motley, Georgios Papagiannis and Dyshawn Pierre are all new to the big dance.
So these facts beg the question: How much does Final Four experience matter? Nunn has played in the NBA Finals. Lessort has a medal from the Basketball World Cup. Grigonis and Vildoza have played at the Olympics. How much will those experiences prepare them? What about Wilbekin? He has played eight EuroLeague seasons and is the leading scorer among players to have never made the Final Four. That will change tonight when he takes the floor. Will all that experience plus a EuroCup championship run as MVP of those finals prepare him for the Final Four pressure? We will be able to approach the question of how much experience matters with more subjects after this season's first semifinal.