The reigning champion goes up against one of last season's semifinalists in a meeting between teams offering very different playing styles but equally big ambitions
Series breakdown: AX Armani Exchange Milan vs. Anadolu Efes Istanbul
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Can Efes correct road woes?
With Milan enjoying home court advantage in Games 1, 2 and, if necessary, the decisive Game 5, Efes must win at least once in the fashion capital to maintain its hopes of securing back-to-back titles. Its record in the regular season does not make encouraging reading, however, with Efes winning just five of its 17 road games – and just two in the last four months.
However, three of those five Efes road wins came in tough environments – at CSKA Moscow, Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv and the bear-pit atmosphere of its local derby against Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul – so it's not as though Ergin Ataman's men fold whenever the going gets tough away from home. Let's not forget that it took a buzzer-beater to stop them on the nearly unblemished court of Olympiacos Piraeus, too.
With an 11-4 record at Mediolanum Forum, Milan has the worst home record of the four top-seeded teams, so Efes is certainly not without its chances.
Efes offense vs Milan defense?
It's tempting to look at this series and conclude it is a simple matter of Efes's offense versus Milan's defense: the Turkish team was the regular season's second-highest scorer (83.1 points per game) and recorded the best average offensive PIR (96.6), while Milan had the EuroLeague's stingiest defense (72.0 points per game allowed).
In particular, Milan's ability to restrict Efes's long-range shooting will be key. The reigning champions made more triples per game than any other team (9.9 per game) and twice set a new record for three-pointers made in a single game. Nonetheless, Milan head coach Ettore Messina's men did a great job of denying easy shots from beyond the arc, allowing just 33.3% of opponents' three-point attempts to fall – second-best in the league.
If Milan can hold Efes to those kinds of numbers in this series, it will have one foot in the Final Four.
Milan confident after regular-season sweep?
Of course, it's not only about one end of the court and Milan will also have to score plenty of points to win this series. The regular-season meetings between the teams will give confidence to the Italian team, which triumphed 75-71 at home in October and then prevailed again in Istanbul, 77-83, less than a month ago.
A key explanation for Milan's success in those games was its excellent care of the basketball, dishing 22 assists with 10 turnovers in the first meeting followed by an even more impressive 22 assists with only 5 turnovers in the rematch. Playmakers Malcolm Delaney and Sergio Rodriguez took turns excelling against Efes. Delaney registered 16 points and 5 assists in Milan while Rodriguez had 12 points and 8 assists in Istanbul. Efes's defense needs to do a better job of disrupting their rhythm in this series.
The Larkin and Micic factor
No preview of this series would be complete without acknowledging the often-unstoppable threat posed by one of the greatest EuroLeague backcourt duos of the century: Efes superstars Vasilije Micic and Shane Larkin.
Micic is the reigning EuroLeague and Final Four MVP, and led the regular season in scoring (18.1 points per game). Larkin holds the modern era's single-game scoring record (49 points against FC Bayern Munich in November 2019), and during this regular season ranked sixth in scoring (14.6 ppg.), fourth in assists (5.3 apg.) and third in PIR (18.9).
Both are exceptional talents, capable of winning close games single-handedly when the mood strikes. One of the game's oldest adages is that great offense beats great defense. If Micic or Larkin gets hot at important moments, either can tilt the series. If they both get hot at the same time, there might be little for even Milan's great defense to do except tip its hat in appreciation.