Stats review: Efficiency metrics expose a razor thin top 10

A rare three game buffer hides fractional gaps between contenders, with offenses and defenses converging as Round 25 approaches

Last week's games ushered in some notable changes to the EuroLeague standings as several teams rose and fell multiple spots. Despite all the movement up top, the teams in the top 10 now sit three games clear of the teams currently outside of the postseason picture.

Despite the rare separation the group above has achieved from the pack, the top of the standings remains extremely crowded with only two wins separating first and 10th place. Looking at that crop of teams by their efficiency margins — the number of points per possession they score less the number they allow — provides some insight into the quirks making this landscape so congested at the moment.

As the table suggests, Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv, coming off an overtime loss to Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade, has the league’s highest efficiency differential, but its offensive and defensive performance is matched exactly by sixth-place AS Monaco. After getting off to one of the best offensive starts in league history, Hapoel has fallen a fraction of a point behind Monaco on the offensive efficiency leaderboards heading into Round 25 despite the latter’s two losses last week.

Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul, in contrast, has built its resume primarily on the defensive end, leading the league in defensive efficiency by a comfortable margin. Sarunas Jasikevicius’s team is on pace for the best defensive season since the 2021-22 campaign, excelling in several areas thanks to its attention to detail in the pursuit of back-to-back championships. Even so, Fenerbahce has the same efficiency differential as ninth-place Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens, as the margins between these teams remain razor-thin. Due to the high caliber of play across this season’s playoff contenders, getting some good bounces this season simply is not enough to ensure success; when a team gets them matters as well.

No team has learned that lesson as well as Virtus Bologna to this point. The lone team with a positive efficiency differential missing from the playoff picture at the moment, timing has hurt the storied Italian club as its 1-3 record in single-possession games has it further from this list than its quality of play warrants. Virtus will be hoping for a regression to the mean to rise back into the playoff race.

With so many teams producing at a similar level offensively and only one gaining much separation on the other end, it will be fascinating to see which teams rise from this group down the stretch and how they do it. What makes the clustered nature of these teams' efficiency differentials so notable is that all of them are within striking distance of many of the EuroLeague's recent champions.

Last season’s Fenerbahce team, for example, posted an efficiency differential of only +0.01 - in line with Valencia Basket and just ahead of 10th place Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade in this season’s terms. With that in mind, seeding, matchups, and momentum are clearly critical, and there’s no shortage of teams with the upside to find that synergy in the coming months.