The significance of finishing in the top four at the end of the regular season cannot be overstated.
The race for the top four
![The race for the top four](https://media-cdn.incrowdsports.com/daab3a4f-d71d-430e-a3fc-aeffbeed2d6a.jpg?crop=1308%3A736%3Anowe%3A42%3A41)
The teams going into the playoffs with home-court advantage, which a top-four finish brings, have historically reached the Final Four more than 80% of the time. Moreover, in the last three seasons, teams with home-court advantage have won 11 of 12 best-of-five playoff series, with only the third-seeded EA7 Emporio Armani Milan losing the series against eventual champion Anadolu Efes Istanbul in 2022.
Here are the teams with the best chances to host a playoff series this season, all of them with great home records this season:
Real Madrid (22-4)
Real Madrid has not yet mathematically qualified for the playoffs (a spot in the top six in the standings), but it can get that done in Round 27 with a win over Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens. The regular-season mission will not be done for Real, however, as its season-long ride atop the standings could lead to it clinching a top-four finish as soon as Round 28 if results fall the right way. Los Blancos have been defending their EuroLeague crown in style, with a four-win lead in the standings while ranking first in scoring (89.0 ppg.), assists (21.2 apg.), PIR (108.3), blocks (3.7 bpg.), defensive rebounding (27.0 drpg.) and allowing a league-low 49.6% two-point shooting. All things considered, it is safe to say Real Madrid will be one of the four teams with the home-court advantage in the playoffs.
FC Barcelona (18-8)
The Round 27 home clash against AS Monaco (16-10) will determine if FC Barcelona has one foot in the door when it comes to a top-four finish. A win over Monaco would give Barcelona a three-win advantage over a fifth-placed team with seven games to go in the regular season, but even if Barcelona loses and gets swept by Monaco, it would still have a cushion on its other rivals. Barcelona, which is 13-1 at home this season, has already swept Olympiacos Piraeus (15-11), won head-to-head against Virtus Segafredo Bologna (16-10), and won its first games against both Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens (16-10) and Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul (15-11) by 8-point margins. Barcelona's road trip in the season's final double-round week, Round 30 at Fener and Round 31 in Athens, could be crucial for Barcelona in this race, but barring a late-season collapse, Barcelona should be enjoying home-court advantage in the playoffs.
Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens (16-10)
The Greens are the most improved team this season, but to no surprise considering their spending spree in the summer and the arrival of head coach Ergin Ataman. Panathinaikos has won its last six home games, but lost three of the last four on the road. However, the team moved up the standings thanks to its five-week run from mid-December to mid-January when it won eight of its nine games, a stretch during which it swept Monaco. Panathinaikos is 11-3 at home this season, but has only three more games in front of its fans. Among the five remaining road challenges is the Eternal Derby in Round 29 in Piraeus where it will try to avoid a sweep against Olympiacos, and a visit to Bologna in Round 32, where it will try to complete a sweep of Virtus.
AS Monaco (16-10)
In its two playoff appearances to date, AS Monaco quickly learned the importance of home-court advantage in the playoffs, having lost Game 5 in Piraeus in 2022 before winning the series decider against Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv at home last season. At this moment, with eight games to go, Monaco is on a path to return to the playoffs with the home-court advantage once again. That's not just because of its five-game winning streak, or the play of Mike James, but Monaco is also facing the weakest strength of schedule in the final eight rounds. After visiting Barcelona in Round 27, Monaco does not face a team with a winning record in the final seven rounds. Those include five home games, while the two on the road are against already eliminated ALBA Berlin and LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne. Monaco is in prime position for a top-four finish.
![image](https://media-cdn.incrowdsports.com/78d264fd-4bde-411c-b10b-adb6c39cd2b1.png?crop=2000%3A1469%3Anowe%3A0%3A0&width=320&resizeType=fill&format=webp 320w, https://media-cdn.incrowdsports.com/78d264fd-4bde-411c-b10b-adb6c39cd2b1.png?crop=2000%3A1469%3Anowe%3A0%3A0&width=360&resizeType=fill&format=webp 360w, https://media-cdn.incrowdsports.com/78d264fd-4bde-411c-b10b-adb6c39cd2b1.png?crop=2000%3A1469%3Anowe%3A0%3A0&width=640&resizeType=fill&format=webp 640w, https://media-cdn.incrowdsports.com/78d264fd-4bde-411c-b10b-adb6c39cd2b1.png?crop=2000%3A1469%3Anowe%3A0%3A0&width=720&resizeType=fill&format=webp 720w, https://media-cdn.incrowdsports.com/78d264fd-4bde-411c-b10b-adb6c39cd2b1.png?crop=2000%3A1469%3Anowe%3A0%3A0&width=960&resizeType=fill&format=webp 960w, https://media-cdn.incrowdsports.com/78d264fd-4bde-411c-b10b-adb6c39cd2b1.png?crop=2000%3A1469%3Anowe%3A0%3A0&width=1280&resizeType=fill&format=webp 1280w, https://media-cdn.incrowdsports.com/78d264fd-4bde-411c-b10b-adb6c39cd2b1.png?crop=2000%3A1469%3Anowe%3A0%3A0&width=1440&resizeType=fill&format=webp 1440w, https://media-cdn.incrowdsports.com/78d264fd-4bde-411c-b10b-adb6c39cd2b1.png?crop=2000%3A1469%3Anowe%3A0%3A0&width=1920&resizeType=fill&format=webp 1920w)
Virtus Segafredo Bologna (16-10)
If the latest results are any indication, Virtus will struggle to book a top-four finish and maybe even clinch one of the top six places. Virtus has won just two of its last seven games and has lost four in a row on the road, including by double-digit deficits in defeats against Barcelona and Fenerbahce where Virtus also lost head-to-head tiebreakers. Virtus has the toughest remaining schedule in this group, with five games against teams with a winning or an even record, while the other three games all come on the road in Belgrade, Kaunas and Milan. What works in Virtus's favor is that it can only get swept by Panathinaikos, which it hosts, while it can sweep Olympiacos if it wins in Piraeus in Round 28. Looking ahead, Virtus hosting Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (14-12) looks to be one of the most significant games of the regular season's final week, it just depends on what positions Virtus and Baskonia will be fighting for.
Olympiacos Piraeus (15-11)
The Reds are currently sitting a win behind a trio of 16-10 teams, but that could change in a pinch. Olympiacos hosts two of those teams, Virtus and Panathinaikos, in Rounds 28 and 29. With those two wins, Olympiacos would position itself into a leading role in the race for home-court advantage, especially due to sweeping its archrival from Athens. A loss in one of those two, however, would be a significant blow in that race for last year's runners-up. The Reds sport a 6-7 road record this season and will have that tested right after the break when they travel to Kaunas, and especially in Rounds 32 and 33 when on back-to-back Thursdays they play in Belgrade against Crvena Zvezda and Partizan. Olympiacos finishes the regular season at home against Fenerbahce, a team it lost in a Round 6 thriller, and that clash could very well end up being a do-or-die game for home-court advantage.
Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul (15-11)
Based on the regular season so far, it is hard to find a team that would "need" home-court advantage in the playoffs more than Fenerbahce, which is 11-1 at home but 4-10 on the road. The good news for Fener and Coach Sarunas Jasikevicius is that five of their remaining games are at home and only two of those are against teams with winning records – right away in Round 27 against Baskonia and in Round 30 against Barcelona. Also, Fenerbahce has won head-to-head tiebreakers against Panathinaikos, Monaco and Virtus and it won the first game against Olympiacos. The bad news? Fener will likely need to win in Piraeus in the regular-season finale to finish in the top four. In addition, the other two road games come at Real Madrid and a Play-In Showdown aspirant EA7 Emporio Armani Milan. Fenerbahce might not be allowed to slip up at home if it wants to have home-court advantage come playoff time.