One game on Wednesday night will determine whether Monaco or Fenerbahce will be the next team to head to the Final Four in Berlin.
What to expect from Monaco against Fenerbahce in Game 5
When AS Monaco hosts Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul in Game 5 on Wednesday, who do you want to win? Because it is easy to make either team look like the favorite based on the prism of which you see the game through.
Ultimately, how you view the teams’ star power and injuries, the importance of home-court advantage, and the numbers that will shed some light. And after all that, 24 players will decide which of the teams heads to the Final Four based on their play on the hardwood.
Who will play?
Naturally, the quality of the 12 players per team will be decisive and to date, both teams have had to do without some key talents. Only seven players have taken part in all four games for Monaco thus far. While some of those who have missed time have been healthy scratches, John Brown missed Games 3 and 4 due to a shoulder injury sustained in Game 2. Brown’s world-class defense would be a boost against Fenerbahce’s top scorer Nigel Hayes-Davis.
Fenerbahce has had to make do without the services of big man Johnathan Motley all series long. His absence has forced Georgios Papagiannis into a much larger role. Motley was considered a game-time decision before Game 4. If he can play on Wednesday and thus give Coach Jasikevicius more power in the paint, it would help the Turkish squad greatly.
Are the stars up for the occasion?
Mike James has stood out over his career as a big-game player. He boasts a career PIR average of 17.3 in the playoffs. Against Fenerbahce, however, his scoring and outside shooting have taken a hit. No doubt some of that is due to the excellent defense played by Nick Calathes and co. at Fenerbahce. Even so, Monaco could use more than the 11.2 points on 5-of-21 three-point shooting (23.8%) that James has delivered this far. Do you think James is due a big Game 5?
No player has had such extreme performances in one season as Hayes-Davis. On opening night, he was scoreless and posted a PIR of -6 in 30+ plus minutes at home against EA7 Emporio Armani Milan. In Round 32, he set the EuroLeague single-game scoring record with 50 against ALBA Berlin, in a game that saw him post a PIR of 46. So far in this series, Hayes-Davis’s PIR has steadily dropped from game to game, going from 23 in Game 1 to 4 in Game 4. He has scored in double figures in every game, but has been just 6-for-21 from deep (28.5%). Fenerbahce could surely use a big night from its star.
Who is hot?
While James has been relatively quite for a player of his stature, several Monaco players have outperformed their regular-season numbers by a healthy margin. Center Donatas Motiejunas has risen to the occasion, upping his regular-season numbers of 8.1 points and a PIR of 9.3 to 12.5 points and a PIR of 14.2. The big man has opened the floor with his 6-for11 three-point shooting (54.5%). Jordan Loyd has also upped his numbers from 10.3 points and 8.5 PIR to 12.5 points and 12.2 PIR. And do-it-all swingman Alpha Diallo has raised his regular-season averaged by 1.5 points, 1 rebound and 1.2 PIR to 10.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and a PIR of 13.0.
Marko Guduric has stepped up for Fenerbahce with 10.2 points, 3.2 assists and a PIR of 11.5 after producing 9.0 points, 2.4 dimes and a PIR of 9.7 in the regular season. Though he was much quieter in Games 3 and 4, Tyler Dorsey rocked in the two games in Monaco, averaging 19 points on 60% three-point shooting (9 of 15). Could these guards be the difference makers in Game 5?
Does experience matter?
Both teams played a Game 5 in the playoffs last season. While Monaco defeated Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv, Fenerbahce came up short against Olympiacos Piraeus. Monaco lost to that same Olympiacos side in Game 5 in 2022, a year that saw Fenerbahce miss the playoffs entirely. Ten players from last season’s Monaco squad are still with the team as are five from the 2022 side. Eight players from last season’s Fenerbahce squad remain. So does experience in this game matter? Probably not too much.
What about home-court advantage?
Entering this season, the record of home teams in Game 5 of playoff series in the current format is 18-0. That goes to reason. Teams that host Game 5 are traditionally very strong at home. Monaco was 13-4 at home in the regular season. On the other hand, Fenerbahce’s five road wins during the regular season were the lowest among playoff teams. And Monaco is 3-2 all-time at home against Fenerbahce. All the signs point to this being an advantage for Monaco, though it is just that. Just an advantage.
Some numbers
By the numbers, Calathes has been the top player in the series with a PIR average of 15.0, which is ninth in the league. Monaco’s PIR leader in the playoffs is Motiejunas (13.5), who ranks 14th. No player on either team is among the playoff’s top 10 scorers. Papagiannis is third in rebounding (6.5 rpg.) and James is tied for seventh in assists (5.3 apg.).