Barcelona vs. Zalgiris: Depth takes on devotion

After 34 rounds in the 2022-23 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague Regular Season, here we are – the playoffs! Unlike in other leagues, each EuroLeague regular-season game is treated like a playoff fixture, but the elimination element of the postseason makes it a captivating prospect for fans and neutrals alike. After all, this is the platform upon which players can turn themselves into legends.

Looking solely on paper, FC Barcelona and Zalgiris Kaunas are worlds apart. Barca, with one of the biggest budgets in the EuroLeague, has gone all in on trying to finally end its 13-year wait to lift Europe's biggest prize, whereas Zalgiris, with one of the smallest budgets in the competition, came into this season merely hoping to improve on last year's last-place finish. Against the odds, Zalgiris snuck into the playoffs as the seventh seed on the last day of the regular season, setting up a meeting with one of its favorite sons, Sarunsas Jasikevicius, and the No. 2 seed, Barca.

Both sides have good cases for advancing to the Final Four, and here's why.

Why Barcelona will beat Zalgiris

Well, it makes sense, right? Barca has reached two straight Final Fours since Coach Jasikevicius arrived in 2020, losing in the championship game and the semifinals, respectively, and it also – as intimated above – has a roster that Zalgiris could only dream of.

The all-star ensemble at Barca – featuring Nikola Mirotic, Tomas Satoransky and Jan Vesely, to name just three – immediately made Barca one of the pre-season favorites to become the EuroLeague champion come the end of the campaign, and its second-place finish in the regular-season standings shows just how talented this team is. (In case you're wondering, the first-seed Olympiacos Piraeus had one more win than Barca.)

What's more, Barca really started to hit its stride down the final stretch of the regular season, going 10-3 in its last 13 games. In that run, the Blaugrana were able to comfortably beat Zalgiris 93-74 in Round 26, so their recent memories of facing the Lithuanian side will be positive. Barca has no major injury worries to be concerned about, too, aside from a knock picked up by Alex Abrines in Spanish League action. In short, it enters the playoffs feeling very good about itself.

Before the season, Barca was my personal prediction to become this year's EuroLeague champion – and I've felt even surer of that prophecy as the campaign has gone on. The way in which Barca can make life hell for its opponents defensively cannot be understated, while it has a plethora of options on offense, led by last year's MVP, Mirotic. The Spanish team is almost unstoppable when it is firing on all cylinders, which makes it the clear favorite in this series. This really does feel like Barca's year.

Why Zalgiris will beat Barcelona

But, all of that said, Zalgiris has reasons to feel optimistic itself. All season long, Zalgirio Arena – the venue of this season's Final Four – has felt like a fortress for Zalgiris, as head coach Kazys Maksvytis and his players formed an incredibly close bond with the fans in attendance.

Now, just imagine the sort of atmosphere that Zalgiris's fans will create in the playoffs, especially knowing that it will get to play in the Final Four on its home floor if it defeats Barca three times out of five.

It will not be easy for Zalgiris – far from it – but the character and unity that the team showed throughout the entire campaign means that this team has a shot. There has been a playoff-esque vibe at every Zalgiris home game in 2022-23, and the players were effectively playing with a playoff-type mindset in the final few weeks of the campaign, going 6-2 in the team's final eight fixtures to book their ticket to the postseason. In fact, Zalgiris closed its regular season with a four-game winning streak, of which two came against playoff teams: AS Monaco and Maccabi Playtika Tel Aviv. Zalgiris is ready for what is to come next.

With a whole nation cheering it on, Zalgiris has its sight set on a return to the Final Four for the first time since 2018, at which point Coach Jasikevicius was on the bench. Barca guard Rokas Jokubaitis was just a youngster at Zalgiris back then, but both he and Jasikevicius have already tasted defeat in Kaunas this season, losing 73-72 in Round 4. The Zalgiris crowd that day was electric, so don’t be surprised if the Barca players cannot even hear themselves think due to the deafening noise coming from the rafters. For Zalgiris, protecting its home court will be key… and then anything could happen back in Barcelona for Game 5.

My prediction

Really, it's hard to see beyond Barca making it three Final Four appearances out of three under Coach Jasikevicius. Its roster is so strong and it has recent playoff experience under its belt, with Zalgiris having not played in the postseason since 2019, so I think that Barca ends up wrapping up this series in four. Zalgirio Arena has been so key for Zalgiris this season, but playing its first two games on the road is tough. Then, if Barca goes 2-0 after Games 1 and 2, it needs just one in Kaunas – a victory I predict the Blaugrana to secure in Game 4.